The numbers are in, and they paint a rough picture for an industry that has been a cornerstone of Scottish culture and commerce for centuries. Scotch whisky exports to the United States dropped 15% by volume after tariffs came back into play last spring, and the people who make the stuff say things could get a whole lot worse before they get better.
The Scotch Whisky Association, the trade body that represents the industry, put out its annual export report recently, and the headline figures tell a story of an industry getting squeezed from just about every direction. Between May and December of 2025, after a 10% tariff on all Scotch whisky categories went into effect in April, shipments to America fell off a cliff. Value dropped 7% during that stretch, and volume cratered by 15%. For a product category where the United States has long been the single most important customer, those are not the kind of numbers that let anyone sleep easy.
Looking at the full year, things were somewhat cushioned by the stronger months before the tariff hit. Total exports to the US came in at £933 million in value, down 4% from the year before. Volume fell harder, sliding 9.2% to the equivalent of about 120 million bottles. Still a massive amount of whisky crossing the Atlantic, but the trend line is unmistakably headed in the wrong direction.
A Global Slowdown With an American Accent
The US market did not suffer alone. Worldwide, Scotch whisky exports dipped to £5.36 billion in 2025, a drop of 0.6% in value from the £5.4 billion recorded the prior year. Volume fell more sharply, down 4.3%, leaving total global shipments at around 1.3 billion bottles. That works out to roughly 43 bottles shipped every single second of every day, which sounds impressive until you realize it represents a meaningful step backward.
The association pointed to a combination of factors dragging things down: the tariffs, obviously, but also the rising cost of doing business back home in the UK and softer demand from consumers in several key markets around the world. When you layer all of that together, producers are dealing with shrinking margins on both sides of the equation. They are paying more to make and ship their product while getting less for it on the other end.
The Ghost of Tariffs Past
For anyone who has followed the Scotch whisky industry over the past several years, the current tariff situation carries an uncomfortable echo. Between 2019 and 2021, a 25% tariff on single malt Scotch was imposed as part of the long-running Boeing-Airbus trade dispute between the US and the European Union. That particular tariff cost the industry more than £600 million in lost exports over roughly two years. It was eventually suspended, and the industry spent years clawing its way back.
Now the fear is that history could repeat itself, and possibly in an even more painful fashion. The five-year suspension of that 25% single malt tariff is approaching its end, and there is real concern that tariff rates could jump to 35% starting in July of this year. If that happens, the current 15% volume decline could look mild by comparison.
The Scotch Whisky Association has been pushing hard for the UK government to lock down a deal with the United States that would restore zero-tariff trade. According to the association, the issue has been raised directly with President Trump by both British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Scottish First Minister John Swinney. So far, though, nearly a year after the 10% tariff was first slapped on, no deal has been finalized. That uncertainty is itself a problem, because producers and distributors cannot plan effectively when they do not know what the rules of the game will look like six months from now.
Pressure at Home Piling On
If the international picture were the only concern, the industry might be able to ride it out. But producers are getting hit from the domestic side at the same time, and that is where some of the sharpest frustration is directed.
Spirits duty in the UK has risen by more than 17% over the past three years alone. On top of that, new packaging taxes have added further costs. For an industry where many products sit in barrels for a decade or more before generating a single penny of revenue, those kinds of cost increases are brutal. The margins in whisky production are not as generous as outsiders might assume, particularly for smaller operations.
Mark Kent, the chief executive of the Scotch Whisky Association, did not mince words about the situation. "The international trading environment continues to be challenging for Scotch Whisky producers, with tariffs and geo-political tension causing significant turbulence in some key markets," he said. "At home, the industry faces soaring costs, from year-on-year duty increases to new packaging taxes. Our member companies tell us they are under strain not felt for decades, and that support is vital to weather the storm."
Kent also took direct aim at the domestic policy environment, saying that global volatility "has now been joined by an increasingly uncompetitive domestic tax and regulatory environment. The spirits duty increase earlier this month, totalling more than 17% in three years, has clearly impacted jobs, investment potential and economic growth."
That is not just rhetoric. Some distilleries have already halted or reduced production. Jobs are being lost not just at the distilleries themselves but throughout the broader supply chain that supports the industry. The association has warned bluntly that more businesses will close their doors for good during 2026 if meaningful support from the UK and Scottish governments does not materialize soon.
Bright Spots in an Otherwise Cloudy Picture
It is not all gloom, though. While the overall numbers moved in the wrong direction, a few markets bucked the trend in encouraging ways.
India strengthened its position as the largest market for Scotch whisky by volume. Shipments to India climbed 15% to roughly 220 million bottles, and the country moved up to become the third largest market by value at £286 million. Given the size of India's population and its growing middle class with increasing disposable income, that market represents perhaps the biggest long-term growth opportunity the industry has.
Turkey was another standout, with export value jumping 43% to £255 million. Those are the kinds of gains that can help offset losses elsewhere, though neither India nor Turkey is anywhere close to replacing the United States in terms of overall value to the industry.
On the other side of the ledger, France saw exports fall 3.6% in value and a steep 14% in volume. Across the broader Asia Pacific region, export value dropped 8.3%, though volumes stayed roughly flat. The mixed results across different geographies underscore how fragmented the global picture has become.
Premium Takes a Hit, Blends Hold Steady
The category breakdown offered some revealing details about where consumer spending is shifting. Single malt exports, the prestige end of the market, fell 6% in value to £1.6 billion. Declines were particularly notable in China, France, and Singapore, markets where premium spirits have traditionally found eager buyers. When the economy tightens or uncertainty rises, the expensive bottles tend to be the first thing consumers cut back on.
Blended Scotch, which accounts for the bulk of the industry by volume, showed more resilience. Blended exports actually ticked up 0.8% in value to £3.2 billion, with growth in markets like India and Brazil helping to prop things up. It is a familiar dynamic across luxury and premium goods categories: when times get tough, the everyday product holds up better than the top shelf.
What Comes Next
The industry is now staring down a summer deadline that could fundamentally reshape its economics. If tariffs on single malt do jump to 35% in July, the impact on the American market could be devastating. Single malt has been one of the great growth stories in American spirits over the past two decades, with consumers trading up to higher-quality, more expensive bottles. A 35% tariff would almost certainly reverse that trend, pushing prices to levels where many buyers would simply look for alternatives.
Kent framed the path forward in clear terms: "In order to realise this future potential, finalisation of a deal to return zero-tariff trade to the US, vigorously pursuing trade deals with Thailand, Mercosur and Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and no further tax increases in the UK must be immediate priorities."
He also struck a note that blended defiance with pragmatism. "It's said that form is temporary, but class is permanent. Scotch Whisky is an iconic product which appeals around the world, and the industry's great resilience means that our long-term potential for continued growth is clear."
That resilience is going to be tested in a serious way over the coming months. The Scotch whisky industry has survived world wars, prohibition, and previous rounds of trade disputes. But the combination of tariff pressure abroad and tax pressure at home is creating a vise that even the most storied industry would struggle to endure indefinitely.
For the millions of Americans who enjoy a dram of Scotch after a long day or break out a good bottle for special occasions, the practical reality is straightforward: prices are likely headed up, selection may thin out on store shelves, and some of the smaller, more interesting distilleries could disappear entirely. The whisky in your glass tonight might cost you more tomorrow, and the people who made it are fighting to make sure they are still around to fill the next bottle.
